nfl draft order with strength of schedule

Mac Grediser

2 min read

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27-11-2024

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NFL Draft Order 2024: How Strength of Schedule Impacts the Race to the Top

The NFL Draft is the lifeblood of the league, a yearly spectacle where teams rebuild, reload, and reshape their futures. But the path to a coveted top pick isn't just about wins and losses; it's intricately tied to the strength of schedule each team faces. A team with a challenging schedule might find themselves picking higher than their win-loss record suggests, while a team with a relatively easy slate could be fighting for a lower pick despite fewer victories.

This year's race to the top of the 2024 NFL Draft is already shaping up to be fascinating, with several teams poised to contend for high draft capital. Understanding how strength of schedule influences the draft order is key to predicting who will be in the running for the top prospects.

The Strength of Schedule Factor:

The NFL's scheduling algorithm creates a complex interplay between team performance and the difficulty of their opponents. A team playing a division with multiple playoff contenders will naturally face a tougher road to victory than a team in a weaker division. This is where strength of schedule comes into play. A team with a difficult schedule might accumulate fewer wins, but their losses might not reflect their true on-field competitiveness.

How It Impacts the Draft Order:

A team with a significantly stronger strength of schedule (SOS) that still manages to secure a low number of wins will likely find themselves with a much higher draft pick than a team with a similar win-loss record but a considerably easier SOS. Essentially, the NFL acknowledges the inherent disparity in opponent quality when determining draft order. While wins and losses are paramount, the context of those games – the strength of the opponents – plays a crucial role.

Analyzing Potential Contenders for High Picks:

To truly understand the implications of SOS on the 2024 Draft order, we need to analyze teams currently projected to be in contention for high picks. While it's too early to definitively predict the final standings, several teams are already showing potential for a high pick, and their SOS will be a significant factor:

• Teams with potentially tough schedules: Teams with challenging divisions and multiple games against playoff-contending opponents will likely see their SOS impact their draft position. Even with improved play, several losses against strong competition could push them higher in the draft order.

• Teams with favorable schedules: Conversely, teams with a relatively easier schedule could find themselves lower in the draft order than anticipated if they manage to eke out a few more wins than expected. Their fewer losses, even if against weaker competition, could impact their final draft slot.

Looking Ahead:

As the season progresses, keeping track of both team records and strength of schedule will become increasingly vital for predicting the 2024 NFL Draft order. While the final order won't be set until the end of the regular season, understanding the role of SOS allows for a more nuanced and accurate prediction of which teams will be vying for the top draft picks and the chance to select the league's next generation of stars. This year, pay close attention to the SOS – it could be the deciding factor in determining who picks first.